Dario Amodei thinks there's a 90% chance we get a country of geniuses in a data center within ten years. He says it in public, with a straight face. He will still not buy a trillion dollars of compute.
The CEO who believes — really believes — that his own product is about to become the most valuable thing in history refuses to place the bet his conviction implies. Not because the compute isn't available. Not because he can't raise the money. Because if the revenue curve slips by one year, Anthropic dies.
This is the economics of certainty-of-utility in plain sight. Believing the payoff arrives is cheap. Believing when it arrives is expensive, and it's the only variable the check-writer is pricing.
Attach yourself to an exponential. But budget for the year you're off by.
No comments:
Post a Comment