Friday, 24 April 2020

I can control my effort , I cant control context dependent intelligence judgement

My conclusion is simple - intelligence is context dependent , hard work is not


If you keep working hard to improve your thinking and your output - this will create results, absolutely certain.

If I try to act intelligently - i do not know what will be the outcome. Most people value intelligence over iterative hard work - I do not.

I believe and will prove by living with iterative hard work - that under uncertainty it is better to work hard iteratively than try to outsmart uncertainty with your intelligence 

Thursday, 23 April 2020

Gautam Kaul - intro to finance

Most important point -

A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow


Passage of time itself has value



Example 1-

Suppose a bank pays a 10 % interest rate per year and you are give a choice between two plans:
1)  100 today
2) 100 , a year from now

Answer -

  • Time line  - visualise 
  • Future value 1 - 110
  • Future value 2 - 100
  • Therefore the answer is - 1
You can not compare money across time , interest has to be taken into account

Bring both to same time line - either fv or pv 

Let’s calculate feature value -

Fv = P + r*P = (1 + r)*P


Example 2 -
 Time line -
Calculate final future value , manual calculate intermittent future value as well
= 121

Fv2 = (1+r)^n*P

Wednesday, 22 April 2020

If you (were forced to) learnt something that is not helping you in making money - Remember, it was the system doing its marketing

What will say about useless things that i was forced to learn in school/university ?
Marketing

Education is the best form of marketing - this was a superb quote that i had read somewhere in between my journey for understanding Business


If you (were forced to) learnt something that is not helping you in making money - Remember, it was the system doing its marketing

Especially, if what you learnt made your brain soft by making you unsure of yourself.

You need to take charge of your life and unlearn useless things and keep learning things that will give you financial freedom , once you have financial freedom - you can work on your own on other types of freedoms ( psychological, emotional , physical, material etc)

Take charge of your life 

Friday, 17 April 2020

First use fo indicators in my financial life

One indicator dominates investment decision. -  cash buffer period

First principle indicators. -


  1. Cash buffer months - number of months that one has before you will not be able to meet you cash payments 
  2. Rent equal emi - How many years it willl take for the rent to equate emi


At minimum , i need to maintain 36 months cash buffer for any property that our company will own.




Example -Real estate - residential

Cash down payment. -  3 lacs
Cost of infrastructure  - 17 lacs
Time period of payment. - 20 years
Rent on property. - 11,000 - with 10 % increment every year
Rate of interest -   8%
EMI -  14500

Rent equal emi - 4 years (approx) - the property will be free after 4 years


Total emi payment to the bank  in 4 years = 14500 *48 =  696000
total rent payment  for first 4 years  - 13000 ( average rent payment 4 years) - Rs 13000 * 48 - 624000

Amount to be paid by owner for first 4 years - Emi - rent amount =  696000- 624000 = 72000








I was searching for Mithoon

I was using Arijit singh as a proxy. - i realised the real power and influence was from the composer

the artist, with all his vocal power , can not save a poorly composed song.

On the other hand, a well trained composer can easily control the damage by a poor vocalist.

Distribution of systems designed to save the rich VRs to save the poor?

I Think, it will be curious to know what percentage of systems/government bodies / private bodies are build to protect the rich and what percentage of it is build to save the poor.

I have a hunch - close to 99% is build to protect the rich.

You serve the master
You serve the one who pays you

In case of government - it is able to function using tax  money paid by top corporates and high income individual

Therefore, government dollar allocation will be in accordance to the tax collection distribution.

People and localities paying the most will get the most services from the government.

Is that so?

Am I equipped to find the answer of this simple question?

What percentage of effort/money spent by government on working for the rich 5% population of India?

What if, the concept of location is evaporated - in terms of real estate

If people are going to work digitally, the concept of top location with top services is going to be useless.


Needs.
Livelyhood - Job/employment. - online { digital jobs} [no office needed/ no commute needed]
Food - Fruits and vegetables /staples - online delivery
Manual labour -  Maid/bai - locally available every where in India
School/college/training / education. - online/ compelled ( you can open digital schools, with 0 infra-cost)
Necessities - Books/furniture/ electronics / all daily needs - e-commerce / amazon
Internet/ electricity - Ubiquitous in India


Conclusion
Get land
Create digital utility assets
Physical world is just an extension of digital world